As such composite systems, we do not possess freedom at a fundamental level, because all particles and their interactions follow the laws of physics. The Standard Model of physics presumes that we are all made of elementary particles with no additional constituents. This brings us back to the fatalistic view. Humans are not good at coping with risks they have never encountered before, as exemplified by the politics of climate change. It is unclear whether our policy makers will actually respond to the challenges that lie ahead and save us from the above statistical verdict.
Wise public policy could mitigate the risk from technological catastrophes associated with climate change, self-inflicted pandemics or wars. It involves the possibility that we possess free will and can respond to deteriorating conditions by promoting a longer future than a few centuries. There is a silver lining lurking in the background. After stating this statistical verdict publicly, I realized what a horrifying forecast it entails. In the more likely case that we are currently witnessing the adulthood of our technological lifespan, we are likely to survive a few centuries but not much longer. It is equally unlikely to live merely a century after the beginning of our technological era if this phase is going to last millions of years into the future. The chance of being an infant on the first day after birth is tens of thousand times smaller than of being an adult. My response was based on the fact that we usually find ourselves around the middle part of our lives, as originally argued by Richard Gott. At a recent lecture to Harvard alumni I was asked how long I expect our technological civilization to survive.
The most vital societal challenge is to extend the longevity of humanity.
Broadly speaking, society funds science, and scientists should reciprocate by attending to the public’s interests. My advice to young scientists who seek a sense of purpose in their research is to engage in a topic that matters to society, such as moderating climate change, streamlining the development of vaccines, satisfying our energy or food needs, establishing a sustainable base in space or finding technological relics of alien civilizations.
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